Understanding the Medicare Trust Fund

In their recently released report, the Medicare trustees have projected that the Part A trust fund, also known as the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund, will remain solvent through 2024. This is the same conclusion that the trustees made last year. Reforms included in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have strengthened Medicare’s financial outlook and extended solvency through 2024. The Part A trust fund and its solvency are frequently misunderstood. The trust fund is a financing mechanism for Medicare Part A, which covers inpatient services such as hospital stays and skilled nursing facility care. The trust fund is financed through a combination of payroll taxes and other revenues. Although, as noted above, the trustees have recently reported that the trust fund is solvent through 2024; that does not mean that the trust fund or Medicare will cease to exist in 2025. The trustees found that the Part A trust fund will be able to cover 100 percent of the costs of Medicare’s Part A benefits through 2024. After 2024, the trust fund will still be able to provide coverage, though at a lesser rate. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), starting in 2025, Medicare will still be able to cover 87 percent of all inpatient costs, and over the next 75 years, the trust fund, on average, will be able to cover 74 percent of Medicare’s inpatient costs. A number of factors can affect the Medicare Part A trust fund. For example, since the trust fund is partially paid for through payroll taxes, an economic downturn could result in less people paying into the system. As the economy recovers, so will the trust fund. Medicare Part B, which covers outpatient services such as visits to doctors’ offices, and Medicare Part D, which covers prescription drugs, are financed through beneficiary premiums and general revenues, not through the trust fund. While action will need to be taken to make up for the future financing shortfalls of Medicare Part A after 2024, it is important to recall that congress has been taking this kind of action since 1970 to extend the life of the trust fund to ensure that people with Medicare are able to access affordable, comprehensive and quality coverage. Unfortunately, supporters of drastic changes to Medicare, such as premium support, point to the potential insolvency of the trust fund to justify proposals that would shift substantially higher out of pocket costs onto beneficiaries and their families as well as undermine the consumer protections and guaranteed benefits that the Medicare program currently provides. Strengthening the Medicare trust fund can be done without gutting Medicare’s guarantees.