By csg_actuarial on December 19, 2012
Recently, with 2012 drawing to a close, we pulled out all the data to take a discerning look at where we’ve been and where we’re going. Overall, 2012 has been positive to the Medicare Supplement market, and we’re projecting more to come in 2013.
Sales, Sales, Sales
We expect Medicare Supplement market sales to finish the year at $3.1 billion, up almost 9% over 2011.* Eight companies will have Medicare Supplement sales of at least 50 million in 2012, led by United Healthcare, Aetna, and Mutual of Omaha.
Claim Trends Down
In general, Medicare and Medicare Supplement claim trends continued the pattern from 2011 and remained substantially (as much as 50%) lower in 2012–partly attributable to the 14% reduction in the Part B Deductible for 2012.
Profits
Revenue growth from increased sales and lower claim trends is helping companies achieve record Medicare Supplement profits in 2012.** CSG Actuarial projects profits will continue to rise in the short term as competitive pressures don’t appear to be dampening the increased profit.
New Entrants
Some Fortune 500 companies expanded their Medicare Supplement market share in 2012. Aetna used its acquisition of Genworth’s Medicare Supplement block to significantly increase sales in 2012. Cigna followed suit and purchased Great American’s Medicare Supplement blocks. AFLAC re-entered the Medicare Supplement market after stopping new sales in the late 1990s.
What’s Coming Next?
So as the year comes to a close and we take a second (or two) to reflect, CSG Actuarial’s market research team is looking ahead. So far, based on our analysis, things look promising for Medicare Supplement. Keep an eye on CSG News for market research updates, including updated 2013 market projections coming in January.
* Based on information through mid-December
** Based on analysis through 3rd quarter 2012
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