By James
Gutman - May 27, 2015
If there is one time of year when
Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D executives are sure to be burning the
midnight oil, it is now: a few days before the deadline for submission to CMS
of their bids for the following year. But while the pre-bid period this time
around still is hectic, the impression I’m getting from some industry actuaries
and consultants is that it’s a little less so than in the past few years
despite an unusually short period between the final 2016 pay-rate notice (April
6) and the bids deadline (June 1).
There may be a few reasons for the
relative tranquility this time. One is that the phase-in of the new MA rate
methodology to that called for in the Affordable Care Act is virtually done,
meaning those plans that can keep their year-to-year spending growth a little
below the national Medicare fee-for-service trends can achieve higher profit
margins in the future, notes consultant Bill MacBain, senior vice president,
strategy at Gorman Health Group, LLC. A second is that the overall pay-rate
change for many MA plans next year is slightly positive, compared with
considerably negative the past couple of years. And perhaps a third may be that
MA sponsors are getting accustomed to working with CMS’s new yardsticks, such
as the continued $32 per-member per-month limit in most situations on the
increase in enrollee cost from year to year.
To be sure, there are lots of
countervailing factors that make MA bid preparation for 2016 less than a walk
in the park. The complete phase-in of the new CMS risk-adjustment methodology,
for instance, figures to cost many MA insurers plenty in 2016, and they are
looking for ways to offset this. Moreover, the Part D standard benefit is
getting richer next year as the Initial Coverage Limit goes up, and this has to
be figured into the bids. So do the many new risk-sharing arrangements that
plan sponsors are working out with providers for next year.
How has the bid period so far gone for
you? How will the size industrywide of premium hikes and benefit cuts
(including for ancillary benefits such as dental) compare with those changes a
year ago? What about the prevalence of service-area expansions and
contractions? Are we indeed entering a quieter era for MA bids, or is this just
the calm before the storm?