Monday, May 16, 2016

Medicaid Insurers See Ups and Downs During Busy RFP Season


Reprinted from MEDICARE ADVANTAGE NEWS, biweekly news and business strategies about Medicare Advantage plans, product design, marketing, enrollment, market expansions, CMS audits, and countless federal initiatives in MA and Medicaid managed care.

By Lauren Flynn Kelly, Managing Editor

May 5, 2016 Volume 22 Issue 9

In the midst of earnings releases and conference calls held by publicly traded Medicare and Medicaid insurers in late April and early May, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Human Services disclosed earlier than anticipated that eight plans total, including three large insurers, had won contracts to serve the state’s mandatory Medicaid managed care program for up to five years. The big winners were incumbent UnitedHealth Group, which won across all five regions, and Centene Corp., which was new to the state and selected to serve in three regions. But the other major incumbent, Aetna Inc., was awarded only one region, posing an estimated $1 billion loss in revenue for 2017.

When questioned by Stifel analyst Thomas Carroll about the loss, Aetna Inc. Chairman and CEO Mark Bertolini during an April 28 earning conference call remarked, “[W]e win more than we lose. This is a much more competitive market than it has been in the past. Incumbents have less of a lock on these contracts than they have in the past as state governments struggle to control the costs around Medicaid, looking for innovation.” He pointed out, however, that Aetna has 230,000 more Medicaid members than it did a year ago, that the company has gained expansions in other states and that it expects to grow through the remainder of this year in Medicaid.

The new Pennsylvania contracts cover Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Children’s Health Insurance Program and Aged, Blind and Disabled enrollees in the state’s mandatory Medicaid managed care program, pointed out Carroll in an April 27 research note. The three publicly traded winners may have a better shot at participating in the long-term care contract, which remains at large and is worth another $10 billion, he suggested. The contracts just awarded are valued at approximately $11 billion in overall premium revenue, added Stifel.

Reporting earnings a day before Pennsylvania disclosed plans to negotiate contracts with the eight managed care organizations, Centene Corp. boasted overall membership growth in the first quarter of 162% to 11.5 million enrollees, which was driven by its recent acquisition of Health Net, Inc. and includes 47% more Medicaid members. The company also reported adjusted earnings of 74 cents per share, excluding Health Net acquisition-related costs and other items, compared with 55 cents in the first quarter of 2015, and a 36% year-over-year revenue increase to $7 billion. The company’s results included eight days of Health Net’s financials.

During an April 26 conference call to discuss earnings for the quarter ending March 31, Chairman, President and CEO Michael Neidorff added that there are a “lot of contracts” left to be awarded by states this year, including Alabama in the fourth quarter, Louisiana on July 1 and Missouri, which just issued a RFP on April 29 (see brief, p. 8).

Meanwhile, Molina Healthcare, Inc. reported a decline in adjusted net income per share from 62 cents in the first quarter of 2015 to 51 cents in the most recent quarter. Strong enrollment growth of 1.3 million members from the first quarter of last year — representing the largest membership gain during sequential quarters in its 35 years of doing business — generated approximately $1 billion or 34% more premium revenue in the first quarter than in the comparable 2015 quarter.

During an April 28 conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings, CEO J. Mario Molina, M.D., explained that higher-than-anticipated enrollment growth, particularly in the exchanges, “stretched” the company’s operational resources. And a drop in per-member per-month revenue from $354 to $324 — due in part to “lower Medicaid expansion rates…and the general failure of Medicaid rates to keep [up] with the growing medical care costs” — outpaced a 5% decline in medical costs to $291 PMPM, he said.

As a result, the company lowered its 2016 adjusted earnings per share outlook to a range of $2.50 to $2.95. Despite the revision, the company said it expects to achieve its long-term goal of 1.5% to 2% profit margin by the fourth quarter of 2017. And although the insurer did not compete for the Pennsylvania contracts, Molina added that the company will continue to respond to RFPs, “primarily to enter new states, especially as they relate to Medicaid long-term supports and services.”

WellCare Health Plans, Inc., which also did not bid for the Pennsylvania business, said it experienced modest membership growth in Medicaid health plans and medical loss ratio improvement, mainly due to an improved cost structure and its new PBM agreement with CVS Health Corp.’s CVS/caremark unit that went into effect on Jan. 1.

During a May 3 conference call to discuss first quarter earnings, CEO Kenneth Burdick said the company foresees “many growth opportunities in Medicaid and Medicare, particularly with program expansion to include complex populations and a growing M&A pipeline.” He cited WellCare being selected as one of three insurers (along with UnitedHealth and Centene) to serve Nebraska’s new integrated Medicaid managed care program as an example, as well as its pending acquisition of Advicare Corp., a Medicaid MCO in South Carolina (MAN 3/10/16, p. 8).

Anthem, Inc., meanwhile, remained positive on its Medicaid outlook despite margin compression in the segment. “We continue to expect Medicaid margins to compress from 2015 levels to a more normalized level, and we are monitoring the performance of this business appropriately,” said President and CEO Joe Swedish during an April 27 conference call. With an estimated $68 billion of new business to be awarded by the end of 2020, he said the pipeline for Anthem’s Medicaid business “remains substantial.”

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