CMS NEWS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 28,
2015
Contact: CMS Media Relations
(202) 690-6145 | CMS
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2014-2024 Projections of National Health Expenditures
Data Released
Total
health care spending growth is expected to average 5.8 percent in aggregate
over 2014-2024, according to a report published today in Health Affairs
authored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of
the Actuary (OACT). The authors noted that this rate of growth is still
substantially lower than the 9 percent average rate seen in the three decades
before 2008.
“Growth in overall health spending
remains modest even as more Americans are covered, many for the first time.
Per-capita spending and medical inflation are all at historically very modest
levels,” said CMS Acting Administrator Andy Slavitt. “We cannot be complacent.
The task ahead for all of us is to keep people healthier while spending smarter
across all categories of care delivery so that we can sustain these results.”
In 2014,
health spending in the United States is projected to have reached $3.1
trillion, or $9,695 per person, and to have increased by 5.5 percent from the
previous year as millions gained health insurance coverage and as new expensive
specialty drugs hit the market. Prescription drug spending alone increased 12.6
percent in 2014, the highest growth since 2002. While more people are getting
coverage, annual growth in per-enrollee expenditures in 2014 for private health
insurance (5.4 percent), Medicare (2.7 percent) and Medicaid (-0.8 percent)
remained slow in historical terms.
Other
findings from the report:
·
Even
with an increased number of people getting health coverage in 2014, medical
price inflation was 1.4 percent. Hospital, and physician and clinical
services, which make up the largest portions of medical prices, also increased
slowly at a 1.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively.
·
Per-capita premium growth in private health plans is
projected to slow to 2.8 percent in 2015 reflecting the expectation of somewhat
healthier Marketplace enrollees and the increasing prevalence of
high-deductible health plans offered by employers. The authors projected that
per-capita premium growth would remain below 6 percent through the end of the
projection period (2024).
·
Approximately 19.1 million additional people are expected to enroll
in Medicare over the next 11 years as more members of the Baby Boom
generation reach the Medicare eligibility age.
·
Medicaid:
In 2014, per
capita Medicaid spending is projected to have decreased by 0.8 percent as the
newly enrolled are expected to be somewhat healthier than those who were
enrolled previously. Overall spending, however, is projected to have increased
by 12.0 percent in 2014 as a result of a 12.9-percent increase in enrollment
related to the ACA coverage expansion.
·
While the newly enrolled Medicaid adult population is
projected to cost more than adults who were enrolled in the program in 2013,
the authors expect that per-enrollee costs will fall below the costs of other
adults after pent up demand for medical care is satisfied.
·
The insured rate is expected to rise from 86.0 percent to
92.4 percent as the number of uninsured persons is projected to fall by 18 million
over the next 11 years.
·
With increases in coverage, the share of health expenses that
Americans pay out-of-pocket is projected to decline from 11.6 percent in
2013 to 10.0 percent in 2024.
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